In response to today’s column, two local candidates emailed to protest my conclusion that Ottawa ridings are unlikely to change hands in election 41. Among them, Hec Clouthier a former Chretien-era Liberal MP who is attempting to re-enter the House as an independent via his old seat Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke, where Conservative Cheryl Gallant has been dug in since 2000. It’s not over until it’s over, Clouthier admonished.
Better odds might be offered Scott Bradley, who is running for the Liberals in Ottawa – Centre against incumbent New Democrat Paul Dewar. He writes,
Per your comments this morning, I’m doing my best not to make it a snoozer here in Ottawa Citizen. Don’t count me out, yet. Paul’s a decent person, but he will not out work me.
The Conservatives basically dropped in someone last week, so not having a prominent name to take Liberal votes is going to help.
The number to watch is the NDP # in Ontario. If they are at 15% or 16% – Paul will come in at around 34 or 35% He will track at about 18% over the NDP number. We’ve got to be tracking over 30% in Ontario.
I’ve also knocked on 12,000 doors in the past year. He didn’t knock on one. I’ll be out main streeting down Bank Street – always welcome to come out and see what the response is like.