Election prediction: Folllow the money

When it comes to spitballing results of Election 41, Talking Points prefers to ignore the pollsters and pay heed to the punters.

The UK website Intrade, “The World’s Leading Prediction Market,” lets users trade futures on the outcome of current affairs events. The price reflects the likelihood of the event happening.

The site recently started offering prediction markets for Canada’s election. Some highlights:

“Conservative Party to win most seats in next Canadian general election” is going for $7.50, reflecting the market’s belief there is a 75 per cent chance of this occurring.

“A majority government to be elected in next Canadian general election” is trading at $5.00 — even money.

Intrade is also offering markets on the possibility of a coalition government so Tory talkers can back up their certainty with cash. No bets yet.

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